So, you want to win the election?
26/05/23
“Who do you think will win?” The question is an occupational hazard of bloviating about politics in public forums. I usually answer declaratively: I don't know. The quest for predictions recalls the Nobel laureate economist Kenneth Arrow, who did a tour of duty as a weather forecaster for the United States Army during World War II. He was ordered to evaluate mathematical models for predicting the weather one month ahead, which he duly did, and found them all worthless. Informed of his findings, his superiors sent back another order: “The Commanding General is well aware the forecasts are useless. However, he needs them anyway for planning purposes.”
Josie's Stuff column looks at the 2023 election. She argues:
Josie's Stuff column looks at the 2023 election. She argues:
- Voter dissatisfaction with National and Labour is high, so expect ACT, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and NZ First all to have a successful year by their standards.
- NZ First is likely to return because if Shane Jones wins Northland, it’s hard for Labour to win as NZ First has ruled out Labour
- Labour's strategy will be to make the election about the future, not the past. It will cast bread-and-butter policies as the alternative to risk. Chippie's familiar leadership versus fear of cuts.
- Both parties will try to put themselves on the side of the many, and cast their opponent as a tool of special interests or privilege.
- National is casting Labour as a coalition of chaos.
- If Labour wants to be re-elected it could do worse than borrow the slogan of my mate Edi Rama, prime minister of Albania, who borrowed it from Tony Blair’s Labour: “Lots done. Lots to do. Lots to lose.”
