I’m writing this column in the spring sun of Paris. Europeans unprompted, talk of war. Russian attacks were so close to the Polish border this week, Nato was forced to scramble its war planes. That this is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II hovers over every cafe conversation.

In February the Danish Defense Intelligence Service said Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war in Europe within five years”. The Germans warned the same in January. In April, Europeans were openly fretting about Russia’s military build up along its border with Norway and Finland.

German security officials say Russia’s war economy is generating more output than is required solely for operations in Ukraine. European intelligence assessments have been wrong before, but how many times in a row do we think tails will come up?

Now, one of the foremost trans-Atlantic security experts, Fiona Hill, warns that Russia is already at war with Britain, and the US is no longer a reliable ally. Russia is menacing the UK with poisonings, assassinations, sabotage operations, cyber-attacks, and sensors around critical pipelines and undersea cables.

What do we do?

Josie's column about the precarious global instability is here.