The facts are encouraging.

The world installed 15 times more solar capacity in 2024 than the International Energy Agency (IEA) had predicted in 2015. Ten years ago, the IEA predicted that by 2040 the world would emit 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. Now its forecast has dropped to 30 billion tons. In the past 10 years, we’ve cut projected emissions by more than 40%.

These facts have led Bill Gates to state that, while climate change is a serious problem, it won’t be the end of civilisation. He’s calling for change – away from a primary focus on emissions and global temperatures – to making the top priority improving people’s lives.

I work for an aid charity that prioritises the Pacific, because we live here too. It’s where we can make the most difference. It’s also the most aid-dependent region in the world per head of population, and at the front line of climate change. In Kiribati, rising sea levels contaminate fresh water. We put in desalination units. These kinds of initiatives are known as “adaptation and resilience.” With aid resources desperately stretched, we have to make a choice between adapting or reducing emissions.

Adaptation is a higher priority than net zero for these communities because it makes economic sense. A study by the World Resources Institute looked at 320 adaptation and resilience investments across 12 countries totalling $133 billion. It found that every dollar invested generated more than $10 in benefits over 10 years.

Read Josie's column in the Post on COP30.